Analysis of Afghanistan

Afghanistan is suffering from the consequences after long years of conflict in the past following the war. Besides shortages of housing, water, electricity and jobs, corruption, insecurities, Afghanistan has weak governance, a lack of infrastructure and a lack of rule of law. The living standards are among the lowest in the world. Additionally, the recent withdrawal of foreign troops (since 2012) has lowered the artificially inflated economic growth. Further, the local conflicts between the Afghan government, various terrorist groups (mostly along the Afghan-Pakistani border) and foreign powers are shaping Afghanistan.

CIA World Factbook: Afghanistan

Last updated: February 2019, URL: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html

Politics

  • Presidential Islamic Republic
  • Capital: Kabul (~4 million inhabitants)
  • President: Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
  • Bicameral National Assembly: House of Elders and House of People
  • Judiciary: Supreme Court
  • 34 provinces
  • 19thAugust 1919 independence from UK control
  • Latest constitution ratified Jan 2004
  • October 2018: Last parliamentary election (3 years later than planned)

Society

  • Population: 34.9 Million (July 2018)
  • Ethnicity: Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, others (2015, no newer data available)
  • Official languages: Afghan Persian/Dari (50%), Pashto (35%), Turkic languages
  • Religion: 99.7% Muslim (~85-90% Sunni, ~10-15% Shia)
  • Urbanisation: 25.5% Urban population (2018)
  • Literacy: 38.2% (2015)
  • ~63% younger than 25 years old, median age: 19 years old (2018)
  • Internet users: 10.6%

Geography

  • Rugged mountains, plains in north and southwest
  • Natural resources: natural gas, petroleum, coal, precious/semiprecious stones, etc.
  • Limited natural freshwater resources, pollution, deforestation

Economy

  • GDP: $69.51 billion (2017); $1,900 p.c. (2017)
  • Exports: $784 million (2017) to India (56.5%) and Pakistan (29.6%)
  • Imports: $7.616 billion (2017) from China (21%), Iran (20.5%), Pakistan (11.8%), Kazakhstan (11%), Uzbekistan (6.8%) and Malaysia (5.3%)
  • Depending on foreign aid after years of conflict: 
    $83 billion (2003-2016); $3.8 billion (2017-2020)
  • Shortages of housing, water, electricity and jobs
  • Corruption, insecurity, weak governance, lack of infrastructure, lack of rule of law
  • Living standards among the lowest in the world
  • Recent withdrawal of foreign troops (since 2012) has lowered artificially inflated economic growth

Energy

  • Electrification total 43% (2012): urban areas 83%; rural areas 32%
  • No crude oil production/import
  • Natural gas production: 164.2 million cu m (2017)
  • No natural gas exports
  • Gas Pipelines: 466 km (2013)

Terrorism (2018) – Afghanistan-based

  • Al-Qa’ida: South, Northwest, Northeast (Afghan-Pakistani border)
    àEliminate Western influence in Islamic world, unite Muslim community und pan-Islamic caliphate under Salafi Muslim interpretation of Sharia
  • Islamic Jihad Union: cooperation with Taliban and other extremists
    àDrive out NATO forces to destabilise Afghanistan and overthrow Uzbekistan’s government
  • Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: North along Afghan-Pakistani border, paramilitary training camps and basis
    àfractured mainly cooperate with ISIS, some do with Taliban; goal to establish Islamic state
  • Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham-Khorasan: Afghan-Pakistani border
    àCounter Westerners and Shia Muslims, establish Islamic caliphate in the neighbouring countries
  • Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan: Afghan-Pakistani border
    àEliminate foreign troops from Afghanistan, remove Pakistani forces from Tribal Areas, overthrow Pakistani Government

  • Afghanistan and Pakistan are in talks on the alignment of their action
    àTaliban insurgencies and counterterrorism efforts are discussed since 2014.
  • Smuggle of poppy derivatives from Afghanistan through Central Asian countries

Afghanistan: Who controls what

Aljazeera, October 2018, URL: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2016/08/afghanistan-controls-160823083528213.html

  • Fall of the Taliban in 2001 after US-invation

56.3 % of Afghanistan under control of the Afghan government

14.5% under rebel control

29.2% contested area

  • February 2018: Ghani invited Taliban to “unconditional” peace talks offering to recognize the Taliban as legitimate political force
    àTaliban denied talks with Kabul government, but offered talks with US officials instead
  • “Annual spring offensive in April” by the Taliban
  • October, Parliamentary elections: 10 campaigning candidates were killed by the Taliban

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2016/08/afghanistan-controls-160823083528213.html

Source: https://www.eurasianbusinessbriefing.com/new-chapter-work-starts-afghan-leg-tapi-pipeline/screen-shot-2018-02-23-at-09-59-29/

Taliban threaten 70% of Afghanistan, BBC finds 

BBC, January 2018, URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42863116

The history of the Afghanistan war

BBC, March 2012, URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/15214375

  • Taliban controlled most parts of Afghanistan 1996 to 2001
  • 2001 British and American armed forces with Afghan fighters allied as the “Northern Alliance” and overthrew the Taliban
  • 9/11 terrorist attacks, US believed the head of al-Qaeda, Osama Bin Laden was the man behind the attacks
  • Taliban had al-Qaeda having training camps in Afghanistan
  • Taliban refused to hand over Bin Laden, US began to bomb Afghanistan (Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters)
  • Northern alliance took over Kabul and since then tried to help to build a stable government
  • Foreign troops are withdrawn step by step

https://www.zeit.de/thema/afghanistan

  • 2001 to 2014 international Isaf-Mission (peace mission)
  • Currently around 43,000 foreign soldiers
    àUS: 15.000
    àBundeswehr: 3,200 soldiers

EIA report on Afghanistan

https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/country.php?iso=AFG
àthe EIA shows some data on the country, but does not provide any analysis on the Afghan energy sector.