Dr. Simon Pirani, Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Focus on Russia, Russian gas transit through Ukraine and Central Asia. He wrote the report titled “Let’s not exaggerate – Southern Gas Corridor Prospects to 2030”
Questions:
Do you think that the Trans-Caspian extension of the Southern Gas Corridor is feasible?
He thinks that the extension is not feasible for two main reasons: politically, there has been a shift in the position of Russia and Iran and there was a movement in terms of international talks, indicating that it is neither in the interest of Russia nor in the interest of Iran to build such an extension. Secondly, it is not the economic interest of Azerbaijan to build a large pipeline to cross the Caspian and arrive in Europe because it would be a direct competition to its own gas system.
Under correct conditions it is difficult to see how this project could be done in such a way given the likely prices of gas in the European market.
If you have background knowledge on Turkmenistan, how important do you think Russia will be for this country in the future?
Yes, Russia will keep playing a crucial role for Turkmenistan in the foreseeable future.
What do you think about Russia’s proposal that Turkmenistan could use the CAC (Central Asia-Centre Pipeline) network?
It could be feasible for Turkmenistan to use the CAC accepting Russia’s offer. It is more likely to use such infrastructure than building a new one such as pipeline. There has just recently been a meeting between the gas companies of Russia and Turkmenistan, which is a proof that this is a highly likely scenario. This is linked to the current economic difficulties that Russia is experiencing and the attitude that the country has adopted towards the old soviet republics.
Do you think that it would be feasible to build and operate the TAPI pipeline in Afghanistan?
“peace pipeline” as classified by the American government. He is not familiar enough with the current situation in the country. What it is necessary to focus on is the economic point of view. The prices that might be paid for Turkmen gas in India and Pakistan, considering the competition of LNG available, might make the pipeline not economically feasible. If the pipeline is realized is rather for political rather than for economic reasons.
Do you think that the AGRI project is scalable?
The economic problem of making Turkmen gas competitive in Europe still remains, same case as for the Trans-Caspian Corridor. the shortcomings of newspapers is that the journalists focus on political rather than economical aspects.
- colour minds brussels → newspaper articles
- industry press less distorted, more sceptical (economics)
How important could it be for the integration of the European gas network?
It is so far in the future that there are too many factors to have a precise analysis of the situation. It is necessary to rather focus on the reduction of fossil fuels consumption.
Thomas W O'Donnell 6:01 pm on April 28, 2019 Permalink |
Hi Max, Yes, very interesting. This is very useful.
I’m trying to go to the links in your post, but the 2nd and 3rd ones say they are “blocked” even though I’m logged in. The first one has some code like %20 in front of the link – when I remove it it words okay, going to the White Stream Wiki.
Do the links work for you and/or the others?
Thanks Tom
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