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  • maxsteudel 5:21 am on April 26, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    Europe – Azerbaijan as gatekeeper? 

    As you maybe remember, Tom was very critical about the opinion of the expert we interviewed that Azerbaijan is the limiting factor for the deliveries to Europe. Therefore, I used a sleepless night to do some more research on this and found very interesting articles. They supported that Azerbaijan is not the limiting factor.

    (More …)
     
    • Thomas W O'Donnell 6:01 pm on April 28, 2019 Permalink | Reply

      Hi Max, Yes, very interesting. This is very useful.
      I’m trying to go to the links in your post, but the 2nd and 3rd ones say they are “blocked” even though I’m logged in. The first one has some code like %20 in front of the link – when I remove it it words okay, going to the White Stream Wiki.
      Do the links work for you and/or the others?
      Thanks Tom

      Like

  • maxsteudel 3:52 am on April 11, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    China – Diversification in progress 

    I found this Master thesis from a Duke MPP student. Actually, I was looking for something else, but I came to one astonishing number: In 2012 the Turkmen gas deliveries comprised for 51% of the Chinses gas imports. So it already decreased.

    https://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10161/8459/MP_Final_Tang.pdf?sequence=1

     
    • Tom ODonnell 9:14 am on April 12, 2019 Permalink | Reply

      Very interesting, Max That makes sense. Thanks! Tom

      On Thu, Apr 11, 2019, 05:52 TAPI: Proposed Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline wrote:

      > maxsteudel posted: ” I found this Master thesis from a Duke MPP student. > Actually, I was looking for something else, but I came to one astonishing > number: In 2012 the Turkmen gas deliveries comprised for 51% of the Chinses > gas imports. So it already decreased. https://duk” >

      Like

  • andreagiuliani97 9:53 am on April 5, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    Minutes Interview with Dr. Simon Pirani 05/04/19 

    Dr. Simon Pirani, Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Focus on Russia, Russian gas transit through Ukraine and Central Asia. He wrote the report titled “Let’s not exaggerate – Southern Gas Corridor Prospects to 2030”

    Questions:

    Do you think that the Trans-Caspian extension of the Southern Gas Corridor is feasible?

    • politically?

    He thinks that the extension is not feasible for two main reasons: politically, there has been a shift in the position of Russia and Iran and there was a movement in terms of international talks, indicating that it is neither in the interest of Russia nor in the interest of Iran to build such an extension. Secondly, it is not the economic interest of Azerbaijan to build a large pipeline to cross the Caspian and arrive in Europe because it would be a direct competition to its own gas system.

    • economically?

    Under correct conditions it is difficult to see how this project could be done in such a way given the likely prices of gas in the European market.

    If you have background knowledge on Turkmenistan, how important do you think Russia will be for this country in the future?

    Yes, Russia will keep playing a crucial role for Turkmenistan in the foreseeable future.

    What do you think about Russia’s proposal that Turkmenistan could use the CAC (Central Asia-Centre Pipeline) network?

    It could be feasible for Turkmenistan to use the CAC accepting Russia’s offer. It is more likely to use such infrastructure than building a new one such as pipeline. There has just recently been a meeting between the gas companies of Russia and Turkmenistan, which is a proof that this is a highly likely scenario. This is linked to the current economic difficulties that Russia is experiencing and the attitude that the country has adopted towards the old soviet republics.

    Do you think that it would be feasible to build and operate the TAPI pipeline in Afghanistan?

    • other people who know

    “peace pipeline” as classified by the American government. He is not familiar enough with the current situation in the country. What it is necessary to focus on is the economic point of view. The prices that might be paid for Turkmen gas in India and Pakistan, considering the competition of LNG available, might make the pipeline not economically feasible. If the pipeline is realized is rather for political rather than for economic reasons.

    Do you think that the AGRI project is scalable?

    The economic problem of making Turkmen gas competitive in Europe still remains, same case as for the Trans-Caspian Corridor. the shortcomings of newspapers is that the journalists focus on political rather than economical aspects.

    • colour minds brussels → newspaper articles
    • industry press less distorted, more sceptical (economics)

    How important could it be for the integration of the European gas network?

    It is so far in the future that there are too many factors to have a precise analysis of the situation. It is necessary to rather focus on the reduction of fossil fuels consumption.

     
  • maxsteudel 8:30 am on March 29, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    Turkmenistan – Real economic recovery or just improving approval rates of the Berdymukhamedov dynasty 

    • New economic projects such as a concrete factory, some agro industrial facilites and fishery sector were opened or are planned. (Translator needed)
    • The aforementioned newspaper article sees this as sign of recovery
    • Most of the projects are in the province of Ahal, where the son of the current president became recently deputy governor
    • Therere are claims that the projects have high governmental subsidies and that the benefits majorly go to firms with close relations to the president’s family
    • In addition, the majority of the Turkmen elite is living the respective province.
    • Therefore, claims arose that it was only a manoeuvre to improve the approval rate of the Berdymukhamedov clan and to pave the road for Serdar Berdymukhamedov as successor of his father. (see last three articles above)
     
  • maxsteudel 8:09 am on March 29, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    Europe & Turkmenistan – Gas as door opener 

    There were several economics summits between political leaders from the Stans and European policy makers. They were majorly about potential gas deliveries. Now, reports arise that the gas plays only a minor role in further discussions. There were also talks about a depened general economic cooperation. In late February for example, there was a delegation from Deutsche Bank to Turkmenistan, to evaluate the potential of investments.

     
    • Thomas ODonnell 8:41 am on March 29, 2019 Permalink | Reply

      The linked article is interesting:
      “A more unambiguous line was taken by the EU’s permanent envoy to Ashgabat, Lubomir Frebort, who reportedly spoke about Europe’s support for TCP. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov likewise described implementation of this project as a pressing matter.

      President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov
      Next they’ll photoshop him walking on water. (state media)
      The remarks were made during a Berdymukhamedov-led visit to the Altyn Asyr la…”

      If there’s going to be a TCP, the EU will have to have some concerted diplomacy and pressure on Moscow. I suppose that will depend on the EU position with regards to the new, very harsh sanctions law coming from the US Congress this summer against Russian energy and oligarchs, military sales, etc.

      Like

  • geetmm 2:21 pm on March 28, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    Is India’s target of 15% natural gas in energy mix achievable? 

    Link

    While the Indian government announced a target of increasing natural gas to be 15% of India’s energy mix by 2030, analysts from IEA and OPEC project very different numbers:

    • OPEC (World Oil Outlook 2018) projects the share of natural gas to increase to 7.7% by 2040
    • IEA (World Energy Outlook 2018) projects natural gas to go up to 8% under new policy scenario, 7% under Current Policy Scenario, and 16% under Sustainable Development Scenario.
    • BP’s Energy Outlook (2019) projects it to go up to 8% by 2040.
    • Shell LNG Outlook and WoodMac project between 5 – 10% by 2035.

    Reasons:

    • Major reforms on gas-based power generation required ie. integration of power and gas. Global share of natural gas in the overall energy mix is 24% and around a third of demand comes from gas-based power plants. This is what India would need to do to icnrease its share of natural gas.
    (More …)
     
  • maxsteudel 11:00 am on March 28, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    Russia – Offers Turkmenistan the use of the CAC network 

    According to this article, Russia has offered Turkmenistan to use the CAC pipeline network to deliver gas to Europe and to the CIS.

    I thought that this are very exciting news!

     
    • Thomas W O'Donnell 11:38 pm on March 28, 2019 Permalink | Reply

      I wonder how much gas they are talking about?
      Also, is this in lieu of allowing a cross-Caspian pipeline from Turkmenistan?
      Perhaps Russia is concerned about the depths of the crisis in Turkmenistan … or is taking advantage of the crisis. It depends on what they are willing to pay for the Turkmen gas. Does Miller also want very cheap gas in the way China is taking it?
      Very interesting.

      Like

      • maxsteudel 5:28 am on March 29, 2019 Permalink | Reply

        Dear Tom,
        As an official idea/announcements, this came up the first time yesterday. The newspaper article was only 4 hours old when I sent it. Maybe there will be more during the next days.
        I already came across this idea from a theoretical perspective some weeks ago, when I wrote this article https://tapigaspipeline.home.blog/2019/02/22/the-southern-gas-corridor-sgc-i-is-it-relevant-for-turkmenistan/ . There was this one report from the Oxford energy center, giving cost estimates for this approach. I seemed as if this was not realistic at this time. It would be way cheaper to go this way than going via the southern gas corridor, but at the cost of using the Russian network.
        Therefore, I immediately wrote an email to the researcher from Oxford who published the report (the Mail I forwarded to you).

        Like

        • Thomas W O'Donnell 6:51 am on March 29, 2019 Permalink | Reply

          Hi Max, Thanks.
          Yes I recall your earlier discussion of this. There had also been discussion of the ins and outs back when Russia terminated this arrangement some years ago. Let’s see what develops.
          Tom

          Like

  • andreagiuliani97 8:32 pm on March 27, 2019 Permalink | Reply
    Tags:   

    Minutes 27/03/19: 

    How to proceed with the preliminary draft due on Tuesday, April 2nd, at noon:

    • Everyone writes an extensive text on his/her topic including as many details and information as possible.
    • Everyone prepares an executive summary for his/her section (roughly between 150 and 250 words)
    • All the references should be footnotes in Chicago style

    We also contacted 3 people:

    • Tim Boersma (Columbia SIPA)
    • Charles Ebinger (Atlantic Council)
    • Nikos Tsafos (CSIS)

    Subsequently we directly dived into a discussion on how to improve the current draft of the report.

     
  • geetmm 9:18 am on March 19, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    India’s new Exploration and Production of oil & gas policy 

    Natural Gas in India’s Energy mix: 6-7%. Government has a goal to increase this to 15% in 10 years.

    India’s New Oil and gas policy

    1. New policy to promote local oil and gas production as of February 2019. Purpose is to decrease dependency on imported oil and gas (The country imports four-fifths of the oil and half the gas – all in the form of LNG as India is not connected to any transnational pipeline – that it consumes. India is now one of the biggest importers of oil in the world and the fourth biggest importer of LNG – NGW Magazine).
    2. Many governments have tried to boost local production but have failed due to complex policy frameworks: a slow decision-making process; and non-remunerative prices, especially for gas
    3. The new exploration and production (E&P) policy: to attract new investments to unexplored areas and to liberalize the policy in producing basins.
    4. How the new policy works: government does not charge a share of profits of oil and gas produced from less-explored oil and gas basins. Also, the contractor shall have “full marketing and pricing freedom to sell on arm’s length basis” (link).
    5. Policy shows a shift in paradigm – moving from revenue-maximization to production-maximization, with a focus on exploring untapped areas.
    6. The previous policy, on the other hand, had a uniform contractual regime of revenue share with the government, regardless of the type of basin. However the new policy only applies to new basins – operators of already established basins have to continue the revenue share as per their initial contract.
    India’s LNG consumption (note that half of LNG is imported)
    India’s Gas Consumption v. Production

    Details of the new E&P Policy

    • In basins where there is no commercial production, “exploration blocks” would be tendered without any revenue sharing with govt. Only if there is windfall gain and revenue exceeds $2.5billion will govt take a share.
    • Contractors will have full marketing and pricing freedom for crude oil and natural gas, through transparent and competitive bidding process.
    • Increase in ease-of-doing-business – set up coordination mechanism under a cabinet secretary to expedite inter-ministerial approvals, simplification of approval processes, and alternative dispute mechanism.

    Marketing and pricing reform for natural gas

    • reduced royalty rates by 10% on additional gas production from domestic fields over/above normal production under business as usual.
    • Note that domestic pricing of gas has remained below cost of production + low pipeline connectivity = disincentives to develop natural gas fields. Domestic gas prices have been pegged to prices prevailing at international hubs.
    • Lack of gas trading hub means there has been no price discovery mechanism for gas. (If India’s hubs were international located in gas abundant areas, then domestic gas prices could have been low.)
    • Thus marketing and pricing freedom is an important part of incentivizing local production.

    India and Nuclear – India and the US have agreed to build six US nuclear reactors in the state of Andhra Pradesh. India plans to triple its nuclear capacity by 2024 to wean the economy of polluting fossil fuels (link)

     
  • maxsteudel 6:33 pm on March 15, 2019 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: AGRI,   

    AGRI: Another Blog, working on the topic 

    I found this interesting blog on Central and Eastern Europe including an article on AGRI that is very extensive. The blog also includes articles on Turkmenistan, so maybe its of interest for some of you.

    P.S. : Dr. Steffen Meister replied. Will notify you in the group later.

     
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