As you maybe remember, Tom was very critical about the opinion of the expert we interviewed that Azerbaijan is the limiting factor for the deliveries to Europe. Therefore, I used a sleepless night to do some more research on this and found very interesting articles. They supported that Azerbaijan is not the limiting factor.
(More …)
I found this Master thesis from a Duke MPP student. Actually, I was looking for something else, but I came to one astonishing number: In 2012 the Turkmen gas deliveries comprised for 51% of the Chinses gas imports. So it already decreased.
https://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10161/8459/MP_Final_Tang.pdf?sequence=1
Very interesting, Max That makes sense. Thanks! Tom
On Thu, Apr 11, 2019, 05:52 TAPI: Proposed Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline wrote:
> maxsteudel posted: ” I found this Master thesis from a Duke MPP student. > Actually, I was looking for something else, but I came to one astonishing > number: In 2012 the Turkmen gas deliveries comprised for 51% of the Chinses > gas imports. So it already decreased. https://duk” >
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Dr. Simon Pirani, Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Focus on Russia, Russian gas transit through Ukraine and Central Asia. He wrote the report titled “Let’s not exaggerate – Southern Gas Corridor Prospects to 2030”
Questions:
Do you think that the Trans-Caspian extension of the Southern Gas Corridor is feasible?
He thinks that the extension is not feasible for two main reasons: politically, there has been a shift in the position of Russia and Iran and there was a movement in terms of international talks, indicating that it is neither in the interest of Russia nor in the interest of Iran to build such an extension. Secondly, it is not the economic interest of Azerbaijan to build a large pipeline to cross the Caspian and arrive in Europe because it would be a direct competition to its own gas system.
Under correct conditions it is difficult to see how this project could be done in such a way given the likely prices of gas in the European market.
If you have background knowledge on Turkmenistan, how important do you think Russia will be for this country in the future?
Yes, Russia will keep playing a crucial role for Turkmenistan in the foreseeable future.
What do you think about Russia’s proposal that Turkmenistan could use the CAC (Central Asia-Centre Pipeline) network?
It could be feasible for Turkmenistan to use the CAC accepting Russia’s offer. It is more likely to use such infrastructure than building a new one such as pipeline. There has just recently been a meeting between the gas companies of Russia and Turkmenistan, which is a proof that this is a highly likely scenario. This is linked to the current economic difficulties that Russia is experiencing and the attitude that the country has adopted towards the old soviet republics.
Do you think that it would be feasible to build and operate the TAPI pipeline in Afghanistan?
“peace pipeline” as classified by the American government. He is not familiar enough with the current situation in the country. What it is necessary to focus on is the economic point of view. The prices that might be paid for Turkmen gas in India and Pakistan, considering the competition of LNG available, might make the pipeline not economically feasible. If the pipeline is realized is rather for political rather than for economic reasons.
Do you think that the AGRI project is scalable?
The economic problem of making Turkmen gas competitive in Europe still remains, same case as for the Trans-Caspian Corridor. the shortcomings of newspapers is that the journalists focus on political rather than economical aspects.
How important could it be for the integration of the European gas network?
It is so far in the future that there are too many factors to have a precise analysis of the situation. It is necessary to rather focus on the reduction of fossil fuels consumption.
There were several economics summits between political leaders from the Stans and European policy makers. They were majorly about potential gas deliveries. Now, reports arise that the gas plays only a minor role in further discussions. There were also talks about a depened general economic cooperation. In late February for example, there was a delegation from Deutsche Bank to Turkmenistan, to evaluate the potential of investments.
The linked article is interesting:
“A more unambiguous line was taken by the EU’s permanent envoy to Ashgabat, Lubomir Frebort, who reportedly spoke about Europe’s support for TCP. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov likewise described implementation of this project as a pressing matter.
President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov
Next they’ll photoshop him walking on water. (state media)
The remarks were made during a Berdymukhamedov-led visit to the Altyn Asyr la…”
If there’s going to be a TCP, the EU will have to have some concerted diplomacy and pressure on Moscow. I suppose that will depend on the EU position with regards to the new, very harsh sanctions law coming from the US Congress this summer against Russian energy and oligarchs, military sales, etc.
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While the Indian government announced a target of increasing natural gas to be 15% of India’s energy mix by 2030, analysts from IEA and OPEC project very different numbers:
Reasons:
According to this article, Russia has offered Turkmenistan to use the CAC pipeline network to deliver gas to Europe and to the CIS.
I thought that this are very exciting news!
I wonder how much gas they are talking about?
Also, is this in lieu of allowing a cross-Caspian pipeline from Turkmenistan?
Perhaps Russia is concerned about the depths of the crisis in Turkmenistan … or is taking advantage of the crisis. It depends on what they are willing to pay for the Turkmen gas. Does Miller also want very cheap gas in the way China is taking it?
Very interesting.
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Dear Tom,
As an official idea/announcements, this came up the first time yesterday. The newspaper article was only 4 hours old when I sent it. Maybe there will be more during the next days.
I already came across this idea from a theoretical perspective some weeks ago, when I wrote this article https://tapigaspipeline.home.blog/2019/02/22/the-southern-gas-corridor-sgc-i-is-it-relevant-for-turkmenistan/ . There was this one report from the Oxford energy center, giving cost estimates for this approach. I seemed as if this was not realistic at this time. It would be way cheaper to go this way than going via the southern gas corridor, but at the cost of using the Russian network.
Therefore, I immediately wrote an email to the researcher from Oxford who published the report (the Mail I forwarded to you).
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Hi Max, Thanks.
Yes I recall your earlier discussion of this. There had also been discussion of the ins and outs back when Russia terminated this arrangement some years ago. Let’s see what develops.
Tom
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How to proceed with the preliminary draft due on Tuesday, April 2nd, at noon:
We also contacted 3 people:
Subsequently we directly dived into a discussion on how to improve the current draft of the report.
Natural Gas in India’s Energy mix: 6-7%. Government has a goal to increase this to 15% in 10 years.
India’s New Oil and gas policy
Details of the new E&P Policy
Marketing and pricing reform for natural gas
India and Nuclear – India and the US have agreed to build six US nuclear reactors in the state of Andhra Pradesh. India plans to triple its nuclear capacity by 2024 to wean the economy of polluting fossil fuels (link)
I found this interesting blog on Central and Eastern Europe including an article on AGRI that is very extensive. The blog also includes articles on Turkmenistan, so maybe its of interest for some of you.
P.S. : Dr. Steffen Meister replied. Will notify you in the group later.
maxsteudel are discussing. 
Thomas W O'Donnell 6:01 pm on April 28, 2019 Permalink |
Hi Max, Yes, very interesting. This is very useful.
I’m trying to go to the links in your post, but the 2nd and 3rd ones say they are “blocked” even though I’m logged in. The first one has some code like %20 in front of the link – when I remove it it words okay, going to the White Stream Wiki.
Do the links work for you and/or the others?
Thanks Tom
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