Podcast (Lage der Nation, March 2019)
Interview with Thomas Ruttig (Co-Director of AAN, independent non-profit think tank)
- His prospection of the peace talks: Never been that far with peace talks in the last 17 years, but it’s just the first meters of a very long path.
- Declaring Afghanistan as safe country to send back immigrants: Ruttig is against this, because there is an acute war situation.
- What happens if the peace talks succeed?
How to surveille the treaty? The US would prefer the UN to play a role, but since it is war it is very unlikely that blue-helmets will act. History shows that a ceasefire to be stable, surveillance is needed. The Taliban though dislike foreign troops in the country – depicts one condition of an armistice.
How will the situation be especially for women?
In the talks with different Afghan groups in Moscow, there were three women, which shows that only the Taliban do not focus on the situation of women in Afghanistan, but also within the Afghan government. Liberal Afghan citizens fear that the coalition of Islamist groups is major – which all do not promote women’s rights. - Trump had no interest in Afghanistan and is just interested to withdraw US troops as fast as possible.
Foreign Policy: Everyone Wants a Piece of Afghanistan (11.03.2019) on the peace talks and the possible withdrawal of US troops.
By: Barnett R. Rubin is director of the Center on International Cooperation at New York University and the author of Afghanistan from the Cold War
through the War on Terror. From April 2009 to October 2013 he served as senior advisor to the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan in the U.S. Department of State.
Taliban still refuses to talk to Afghan government until the US ends the so called “occupation” of Afghanistan.
Agreement on the outline of a framework for a deal between US and Taliban includes:
- Withdrawal of US troops
- Guarantee of Taliban to participate in international efforts against terrorism in any possible governing coalition.
- Taliban disavow al Qaeda explicitly
The Agreement is supposed to be only a component of a broader pact including ceasefire, domestic political settlement derived from negotiations including the Afghan government, the Taliban and a representation of Afghan society – including women and youth. This settlement should serve as long-term assistance to Afghanistan to ensure that the withdraw does not result in a collapse of the government.
Regional actors need to agree as well, especially Pakistan who has supported the Taliban’s military and terroristic activities in the past.
- Pakistan sees the US deployment as threat (especially against its nuclear arsenal) and as a cover for Indian activities against Pakistan
- Afghanistan’s refusal to accept international boundary with Pakistan (Durand Line).
- Pakistan has to agree to allow routes from Afghanistan to India
- Pakistan claims that Indian aid and diplomatic missions provide for intelligence operations; water politics (Pakistan short on water)
- China supports the Afghan-Pakistani efforts, since it sees stability in the region as crucial for its Belt and Road initiative.
- Saudis and Emiratis seeking to expand their coalition against Iran and Qatar by including Pakistan and to act in favour of the US government.
- Iran charges Saudi and Emiratis intelligence agencies behind terrorist attacks in Iran making use of Afghan and Pakistani territory
- Iran charges US to use Afghanistan territory to spy on Iran.
- Saudis upgraded the contacts with Afghanistan from intelligence to diplomatic contacts which it used to remind Iran that it reserves the right to take action against US interests and thus of the Gulf States if they engage in hostilities against it.
àThreat of Afghanistan becoming another Yemen. - Russia may be changing from a spoiler to an US partner in the process, because US does not longer insist on monopolizing influence in Afghanistan.
- India in cooperation with Iran has developed the port of Chabahar, which is a transit route that evades Pakistan.
- China has pressured Pakistan to cooperate with leverage on bailing them out in their payment crisis and siding with Afghanistan in the Afghanistan-Pakistani bilateral conflicts.
- China is likely to be a major participant in implementing and sustaining any Afghan peace agreement
- Russia helped building a consensus about Afghanistan with Iran, Pakistan and China
àLike the Taliban these countries see US troops as threat.
Foreign Policy: Afghans Are Cheering for an Indian Win (28.02.2019) on how India is viewed favorably by many Afghans as the enemy of their enemy talking about “Pakistan’s connection to terrorism”.
Foreign Policy: India’s Afghan Dilemma Is Tougher Than Ever (19.02.2019)
Foreign Policy: A Pipeline to South Asia Prosperity (9.02.2016) shows the situation back in 2016 focusing on a possibility for an economic boom for Afghanistan.
TAPI: Proposed Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline 
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