As you maybe remember, Tom was very critical about the opinion of the expert we interviewed that Azerbaijan is the limiting factor for the deliveries to Europe. Therefore, I used a sleepless night to do some more research on this and found very interesting articles. They supported that Azerbaijan is not the limiting factor.
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I found this Master thesis from a Duke MPP student. Actually, I was looking for something else, but I came to one astonishing number: In 2012 the Turkmen gas deliveries comprised for 51% of the Chinses gas imports. So it already decreased.
https://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10161/8459/MP_Final_Tang.pdf?sequence=1
Very interesting, Max That makes sense. Thanks! Tom
On Thu, Apr 11, 2019, 05:52 TAPI: Proposed Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline wrote:
> maxsteudel posted: ” I found this Master thesis from a Duke MPP student. > Actually, I was looking for something else, but I came to one astonishing > number: In 2012 the Turkmen gas deliveries comprised for 51% of the Chinses > gas imports. So it already decreased. https://duk” >
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There were several economics summits between political leaders from the Stans and European policy makers. They were majorly about potential gas deliveries. Now, reports arise that the gas plays only a minor role in further discussions. There were also talks about a depened general economic cooperation. In late February for example, there was a delegation from Deutsche Bank to Turkmenistan, to evaluate the potential of investments.
The linked article is interesting:
“A more unambiguous line was taken by the EU’s permanent envoy to Ashgabat, Lubomir Frebort, who reportedly spoke about Europe’s support for TCP. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov likewise described implementation of this project as a pressing matter.
President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov
Next they’ll photoshop him walking on water. (state media)
The remarks were made during a Berdymukhamedov-led visit to the Altyn Asyr la…”
If there’s going to be a TCP, the EU will have to have some concerted diplomacy and pressure on Moscow. I suppose that will depend on the EU position with regards to the new, very harsh sanctions law coming from the US Congress this summer against Russian energy and oligarchs, military sales, etc.
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According to this article, Russia has offered Turkmenistan to use the CAC pipeline network to deliver gas to Europe and to the CIS.
I thought that this are very exciting news!
I wonder how much gas they are talking about?
Also, is this in lieu of allowing a cross-Caspian pipeline from Turkmenistan?
Perhaps Russia is concerned about the depths of the crisis in Turkmenistan … or is taking advantage of the crisis. It depends on what they are willing to pay for the Turkmen gas. Does Miller also want very cheap gas in the way China is taking it?
Very interesting.
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Dear Tom,
As an official idea/announcements, this came up the first time yesterday. The newspaper article was only 4 hours old when I sent it. Maybe there will be more during the next days.
I already came across this idea from a theoretical perspective some weeks ago, when I wrote this article https://tapigaspipeline.home.blog/2019/02/22/the-southern-gas-corridor-sgc-i-is-it-relevant-for-turkmenistan/ . There was this one report from the Oxford energy center, giving cost estimates for this approach. I seemed as if this was not realistic at this time. It would be way cheaper to go this way than going via the southern gas corridor, but at the cost of using the Russian network.
Therefore, I immediately wrote an email to the researcher from Oxford who published the report (the Mail I forwarded to you).
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Hi Max, Thanks.
Yes I recall your earlier discussion of this. There had also been discussion of the ins and outs back when Russia terminated this arrangement some years ago. Let’s see what develops.
Tom
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I found this interesting blog on Central and Eastern Europe including an article on AGRI that is very extensive. The blog also includes articles on Turkmenistan, so maybe its of interest for some of you.
P.S. : Dr. Steffen Meister replied. Will notify you in the group later.
We Spoke about:
As this article highlights, European gas imports via the Black Sea are crucial for an EU-integrated gas network.
And again we have a nice acronym. AGRI stands for Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector.
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Summary of this article
– Biggest producer: Turkemngas (128,800 t/a, 2016) overall the country produces 300,00 t/a
– Two Terminals – eastern part of the country, at Caspian Sea
– Sources: Nayip, Balguyi, Kerpichli, Bovrideshik and Gazlydepe deposits
– remaining gas used as a component for gasoline production
( according to deeper research: needed for high octane gasoline especially for aircraft)
– increase until 2030 is planned by creation of new plants
– main consumers: Afghanistan, Georgia, (Iran), Tajikistan and Pakistan
maxsteudel are discussing. 
TAPI: Proposed Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline 
Thomas W O'Donnell 6:01 pm on April 28, 2019 Permalink |
Hi Max, Yes, very interesting. This is very useful.
I’m trying to go to the links in your post, but the 2nd and 3rd ones say they are “blocked” even though I’m logged in. The first one has some code like %20 in front of the link – when I remove it it words okay, going to the White Stream Wiki.
Do the links work for you and/or the others?
Thanks Tom
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