TAPI: Proposed Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline

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  andreagiuliani97 9:53 am on April 5, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

  Minutes Interview with Dr. Simon Pirani 05/04/19 

  Dr. Simon Pirani, Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Focus on Russia, Russian gas transit through Ukraine and Central Asia. He wrote the report titled “Let’s not exaggerate – Southern Gas Corridor Prospects to 2030”

  Questions:

  Do you think that the Trans-Caspian extension of the Southern Gas Corridor is feasible?

  • politically?

  He thinks that the extension is not feasible for two main reasons: politically, there has been a shift in the position of Russia and Iran and there was a movement in terms of international talks, indicating that it is neither in the interest of Russia nor in the interest of Iran to build such an extension. Secondly, it is not the economic interest of Azerbaijan to build a large pipeline to cross the Caspian and arrive in Europe because it would be a direct competition to its own gas system.

  • economically?

  Under correct conditions it is difficult to see how this project could be done in such a way given the likely prices of gas in the European market.

  If you have background knowledge on Turkmenistan, how important do you think Russia will be for this country in the future?

  Yes, Russia will keep playing a crucial role for Turkmenistan in the foreseeable future.

  What do you think about Russia’s proposal that Turkmenistan could use the CAC (Central Asia-Centre Pipeline) network?

  It could be feasible for Turkmenistan to use the CAC accepting Russia’s offer. It is more likely to use such infrastructure than building a new one such as pipeline. There has just recently been a meeting between the gas companies of Russia and Turkmenistan, which is a proof that this is a highly likely scenario. This is linked to the current economic difficulties that Russia is experiencing and the attitude that the country has adopted towards the old soviet republics.

  Do you think that it would be feasible to build and operate the TAPI pipeline in Afghanistan?

  • other people who know

  “peace pipeline” as classified by the American government. He is not familiar enough with the current situation in the country. What it is necessary to focus on is the economic point of view. The prices that might be paid for Turkmen gas in India and Pakistan, considering the competition of LNG available, might make the pipeline not economically feasible. If the pipeline is realized is rather for political rather than for economic reasons.

  Do you think that the AGRI project is scalable?

  The economic problem of making Turkmen gas competitive in Europe still remains, same case as for the Trans-Caspian Corridor. the shortcomings of newspapers is that the journalists focus on political rather than economical aspects.

  • colour minds brussels → newspaper articles
  • industry press less distorted, more sceptical (economics)

  How important could it be for the integration of the European gas network?

  It is so far in the future that there are too many factors to have a precise analysis of the situation. It is necessary to rather focus on the reduction of fossil fuels consumption.

   

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  andreagiuliani97 8:32 pm on March 27, 2019 Permalink | Reply
  Tags: Secretary ( 4 )   

  Minutes 27/03/19: 

  How to proceed with the preliminary draft due on Tuesday, April 2nd, at noon:
  

  • Everyone writes an extensive text on his/her topic including as many details and information as possible.
  • Everyone prepares an executive summary for his/her section (roughly between 150 and 250 words)
  • All the references should be footnotes in Chicago style

  We also contacted 3 people:

  • Tim Boersma (Columbia SIPA)
  • Charles Ebinger (Atlantic Council)
  • Nikos Tsafos (CSIS)

  Subsequently we directly dived into a discussion on how to improve the current draft of the report.
   
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  andreagiuliani97 10:20 am on March 15, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

  Minutes Phone Call 13/03/19 

  Structure of the talk:

  • Does the client have any advice regarding our structural draft?
    1. Does he have any observations/suggestions?

  • Scope of the project
    • Given the difficulties with TAPI should we also focus on TAP?
    • Possibility of setting up an electricity grid?
    • Opportunity for investing in the TCP (trans Caspian pipeline and LNG)?

  • How should we structure the final report and presentation?

  The client likes the structure of our analysis and does not have major advice or suggestions. However, regarding the scope of our project, he suggested to look also into Tajikistan. The country is planning on having a powerline running through Afghanistan to Pakistan and could be an alternative to TAPI. We should also check the lack of power and water in central Asia, which could reduce the production of energy.

  The client also said that originally TAPI was meant to be just “TAP”. India is a player that joined the project only at a later stage. Regarding the TAPI pipeline, we should focus on the potential consumption of gas in Pakistan and the security issue in Afghanistan, not only in terms of building but also protecting and operating the pipeline. Cooperation between Pakistan and India is a difficult political challenge, but the client is quite sure that the two countries will eventually cooperate.

  The client agrees that it could be interesting to ask private companies, such as British Petroleum, for information and opinions regarding TAPI. He also approved our idea of looking into possibilities for the European energy market via the Black Sea.  We could especially focus on the Southern Corridor, including an overview of the situation in Azerbaijan.

  Our key questions are: Is it realistic to build the pipeline for Afghanistan? Is there a significant energy market in India and Pakistan and could the two countries cooperate in the energy field? What is the motivation behind Turkmenistan’s interest in the project? Which German or European companies would supply the components necessary for completing the project? Could we ensure the security of the construction and management of the pipeline?

  At the end of the course, the client would like to have an executive summary with the main findings and an extensive research report.

   
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  andreagiuliani97 8:54 am on March 13, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

  DieTurkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Pipeline (TAP-Pipeline) 

  The PDF document that you can access from the link below offers a good historical overview of the TAPI project and also of the possibility of a “TAP” pipeline. Could be interesting to better understand the situation in Turkmenistan.

  Click to access WD-1-037-08-pdf-data.pdf

   
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  andreagiuliani97 10:23 am on March 3, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

  Structural Draft: Historical Overview and Current Situation 

  Historical Overview: After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of an energy shortage in Pakistan and India, Afghanistan found itself in the perfect position to connect countries in need of natural gas with the gas deposits in energy-rich Turkmenistan. TAPI is a natural gas pipeline currently being developed with the aim to connect Turkmenistan with India through Afghanistan and Pakistan and to serve for a 30-year period. However, after the Soviet invasion of the country in 1979, the subsequent rise of the Taliban and the United States invasion in 2001, the Afghan government has struggled to have full control of its territory and safety remains a major concern. Furthermore, Russia still plays a major role in central Asia and new economic and political powers, such as China and Iran, have more and more interests in the region.

  Analysis of the Current Situation:

  The TAPI project has seen many developments between 2010 and 2018. An inter-governmental agreement (IGA) was signed in 2010 by the heads of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. In December of the same year a Gas Pipeline Framework Agreement (GPFA) was also signed by the petroleum ministries of the four countries. Moreover, in February 2018 Turkmenistan completed its section of the project and the Taliban in Afghanistan decided to support TAPI in the areas under their control to foster economic growth.

  Additionally, TAPI is being financed by the Asian Development Bank, which is also acting as transaction adviser for the development of the project. In October 2018, a three-day exhibition regarding TAPI was launched in the Afghan capital. The head of the TAPI exhibition committee prompted both public sector institutions as well as private actors to invest in the project.

  Nevertheless, there are major challenges that still need to be overcome. Firstly, besides what the Taliban said regarding their support for the project, many Afghan regions that would be crossed by the pipeline are unstable and safety remains a significant issue. Secondly, Afghanistan is also struggling to acquire land, which is often privately owned. So far only 45% of the land for the Afghan section of the pipeline has been bought as per Afghan officials. Furthermore, on February 14th, 2019, a suicide attack in the Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir in India killed 40 Indian soldiers. After this event, India accused Pakistan of supporting the terrorist group that carried out the attack. The suicide bombing and following declarations by both countries deteriorated their relationship pushing them towards a state of conflict. Therefore, the latest developments suggest that the TAPI project is far from being successfully completed and starting functioning in 2020.

   
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  andreagiuliani97 4:45 pm on February 22, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

  Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline Project 

  This article (that you can access from the link below) is a good summary of all the main aspects of the TAPI pipeline. Specifically the author examines the:

  • Development background
  • Pipeline route
  • Financing
  • Contractors involved
  • Benefits of the TAPI pipeline

  Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline Project

  maxsteudel is discussing. Toggle Comments

   
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    maxsteudel 2:09 pm on February 27, 2019 Permalink | Reply

    Hey Andrea,
    I found this overview page of Turkmenistan at EIU. It predicts delays in TAPI and some articles even question the likelihood of success.
    http://country.eiu.com/turkmenistan

    LikeLiked by 1 person

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  andreagiuliani97 4:05 pm on February 22, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

  Central Asia Today: a New Wave of Water and Energy Cooperation and Pipeline Architecture 

  This article (accessible from the link below) has a more optimistic view of the current situation of TAPI when compared to my previous post regarding the NYT text. Specifically, the authors point out that the current challenges that countries in Central and Southern Asia are facing, such as economic pressure and climate change, are pushing the countries in the region to collaborate.

  The main takeaways are:

  • These countries see cooperation as the only way to stabilize and strenghten their position in the international political scenario.
  • However, the pipelines that have been built so far did not achieve the goal they were built for.
  • While these countries became less dependent from Russia, their dependence on extra-regional players as the final consumers or transit territories was not reduced. Therefore, the role that Russia had in the past, has now been taken over by China and Iran.
  • This did not allow the countries crossed by the new pipelines to significantly develop and grow.

  https://web.a.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=14046091&AN=130601531&h=FK%2byGtBpgAEFwiserI5IRiOFrODTB0wqZ590t%2bxBi1UC69mXkyMx9FOP4bykzzVjo0%2bFYUeIeQ%2bS4olnDhrAzw%3d%3d&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3fdirect%3dtrue%26profile%3dehost%26scope%3dsite%26authtype%3dcrawler%26jrnl%3d14046091%26AN%3d130601531

   
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  andreagiuliani97 2:51 pm on February 22, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

  India Blames Pakistan for Attack in Kashmir, Promising a Response 

  This article published by The New York Times (that you can access from the link below) is an analysis of the current situation between India and Pakistan. New Delhi accused Pakistan of orchestrating a suicide bombing that killed dozens of Indian soldiers in Kashmir, the worst attack there in decades, promising an appropriate response and calling on world leaders to isolate its neighbor.

  Pakistan has denied involvement in the attack, but by Friday afternoon, India had recalled its ambassador to Pakistan for consultations in New Delhi.

  The main takeaway of the article is that the current Indian government due to the national elections taking place in May will aim for a strong response to Pakistan’s actions in order not to look weak. Therefore, any cooperation between the two countries, such as the TAPI project, is currently susponded.

   
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  andreagiuliani97 1:17 pm on February 22, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

  TAPI Group Minutes 20/02/19 

  TAPI Group Minutes 20/03/19

  • Discussion with the Professor
  • Send a Google calendar invitation for the meeting on March 13^th
  • Advice to investigate Pakistan and India’s different political and interest groups, with a focus on internal politics. Who opposes who? Why? What interests does each stakeholder have?

  Group Discussion

  • Confirmation of the meeting on the 13^th in the morning
  • Checking whether the client has accepted the invitation to the blog
  • Preparation of invitations for people outside of the class to take part in the final presentation

  Group Briefing and Roles for Week 3:

  • Andrea updated the group regarding his topic and his blog posts. He explained that he is continuing the analysis into the historical background and current situation of the project.
  • Gero updated the group regarding the analysis of Turkmenistan he carried out and he is continuing the examination following the advice of the Professor.  
  • Josephin explained the analysis of Afghanistan she conducted, and she said she is continuing the examination following the advice of the Professor
  • Sangeet updated the group on her analysis of India. She is exploring the topic more in depth following the focus on domestic politics indicated by the Professor.
  • Laura updated the group with regards to the situation in Pakistan. As for Sangeet, she is exploring the topic more in depth following the focus on domestic politics indicated by the Professor.
  • Max updated the group regarding the standpoint of China on the project and he is now focusing on other major foreign powers, namely Iran, U.S., and Russia. Max is also taking over the role of secretary for the next two weeks.
   
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  andreagiuliani97 12:46 pm on February 22, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

  Tapi Group Minutes 13/02/19 

  Firstly, we agreed on a coherent format for all our blog entries. We decided that all articles have to be posted with a very short summary and the main arguments explained in bullet points. We also established not to post articles separately, but to rather use blog entries for different subtopics. In this way, we have a clearer overview of all the material, and we can just edit each subtopic to add new insights and articles within the already existing blog posts.

  Secondly, we went through the background research that we carried out in the past week and we changed the structure of our project as follows:

  1. History, development and status play of the project

  • Analysis of Turkmenistan
  • Analysis of Afghanistan
  • Analysis of Pakistan
  • Analysis of India
  • U.S., China, Russia, Iran’s opinions

  Lastly, we assigned tasks to complete by next week to each team-member following the points presented above.

  Roles for Week 2

  1. History, development and status play of the project will be covered by Andrea
  2. Analysis of Turkmenistan will be covered by Gero
  3. Analysis of Afghanistan will be covered by Josefin
  4. Analysis of Pakistan will be covered by Laura
  5. Analysis of India will be covered by Sanggeet
  6. Analysis of U.S., China, Russia, Iran’s opinions will be covered by Max