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  • Unknown's avatar

    maxsteudel 8:00 am on February 20, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    Russia’s interests in Turkmenistan – Security at the Turkmen-Afghan border 

    • Russia sees a threat in the strong Taliban presence at the Turkmen-Afghan border.
    • Therefore, joint military training was (re)started.
    • The Russian lead security organization CSTO offers furthermore a more in depth military cooperation to Turkmenistan, which refused so far. The CSTO sees the Turkmen-Afghan border as “springboard” for the entry of ISIL fighters into post-Soviet states.
    • Turkmenistan follows a policy of “permanent neutrality” which would be contradicted by a membership in the CSTO.

     
  • Unknown's avatar

    maxsteudel 6:06 am on February 20, 2019 Permalink | Reply
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    Russia’s interests in Turkmenistan – The Caspian Sea Conflict 

    In this post, I will focus on the Caspian Sea Conflict as obstacle for Turkmen exports to Europe but also a burden for Turkmen-Russian relations.

    (More …)

     
  • Unknown's avatar

    Dr. Tom O'Donnell 7:22 pm on February 19, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    Links: Turkmenistan Jan-21Feb 

    Greetings all! – Three points:

    First: I strongly recommend you click on the “Insert read more tag”  after writing two or three introductory sentences of any post.  Often a little abstract of a long post is best.

    This tag  is located in the post editor bar, just under the word “visual”.  (It’s icon has two horizontal heavy lines, and a dotted line in between, like a sandwich).  Otherwise, your post will fill the entire first page of the blog and people  can’t see  at a glance what the last several posts were, only the most recent one which fills the entire blog page.

    In fact, I’m inserting one right HERE! (More …)

     
  • Unknown's avatar

    Josefin Pfeufer 3:57 pm on February 19, 2019 Permalink | Reply
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    Analysis of Afghanistan 

    Afghanistan is suffering from the consequences after long years of conflict in the past following the war. Besides shortages of housing, water, electricity and jobs, corruption, insecurities, Afghanistan has weak governance, a lack of infrastructure and a lack of rule of law. The living standards are among the lowest in the world. Additionally, the recent withdrawal of foreign troops (since 2012) has lowered the artificially inflated economic growth. Further, the local conflicts between the Afghan government, various terrorist groups (mostly along the Afghan-Pakistani border) and foreign powers are shaping Afghanistan.

    more
     
  • Unknown's avatar

    lauraperilla55 8:24 pm on February 17, 2019 Permalink | Reply
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    Pakistan signs $10b gas pipeline pact with Russia 

    This article shows that Russia is a key actor in the energy sector, and in this regard in the gas sector. Through this new pipeline, this country wants to captivate the energy market in Pakistan, a country that has a high energy demand and along with the TAPI pipeline, this other one will help with that issue. Besides, this deal seeks to strenghten the relations between the two countries.

    • Pakistan energy demand. Gas a source.
    • Russia as an important player both in the sector and in the region.

    The link to the article is here: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/428961-pakistan-signs-10b-gas-pipeline-pact-with-russia

     
  • Unknown's avatar

    andreagiuliani97 5:22 pm on February 17, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    TAPI Pipeline Project Scouting for Investors at Kabul Exhibition 

    This article (that you can access from the link below) explains that in October 2018, a three-day exhibition in the Afghan capital was launched to prompt private companies to finance the TAPI.

    The head of the TAPI exhibition committee explained that both the public as well as the private sector should invest in the project. In the next month, the exhibition committee will hold meetings also in Turkmenistan, Pakistan and India.

    TAPI Pipeline Project Scouting for Investors at Kabul Exhibition

    TAPI Pipeline Project Scouting for Investors at Kabul Exhibition

     
  • Unknown's avatar

    andreagiuliani97 4:39 pm on February 17, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    TAPI Gas Pipeline in Trouble with India, Pakistan and Afghanistan 

    This article (that you can access from the link below) explains that as of August 2018 work of the TAPI pipeline project has begun in five provinces of Afghanistan. The project was inaugurated by the leaders of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India in January 2016.

    By February 2018, Turkmenistan completed its section of the project. However, Afghanistan is currently facing major challenges in terms of security in the territories crossed by the pipeline and it is also struggling to acquire land, which is often privately owned. So far only 45% of the land for the Afghanistan section of the pipeline has been acquired as per Afghan officials.

    https://eurasiantimes.com/tapi-gas-pipeline-afghanistan-india/

     
  • Unknown's avatar

    andreagiuliani97 4:14 pm on February 17, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    TAPI: A Transnational Pipe Dream 

    This article (that you can access from the link below) is an historical analysis of the TAPI project. It starts from the colonial times of the British and Russian empires and continues with an examination of the current conflict between Taliban and Afghan forces.

    The main takeaways are:

    1. Until the Taliban and the government in Kabul arrive at a settlement to end the war, building the Afghan portion of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline will be difficult.
    2. So long as India and Pakistan are at loggerheads over the contested Kashmir region, the pipeline will fail to improve relations between the two countries.
    3. Even if the pipeline reaches fruition, the funds it generates will do little to boost Afghanistan’s economic development.

    The author also points out that the Taliban have lent their support to the pipeline over the years to foster economic growth. However, due to the uncertainty generated by the conflict between them and the Afghan government, it is currently not advisable to invest in the project that could turn out to be just “an ambitious idea”.

    https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/tapi-transnational-pipe-dream

     
  • Unknown's avatar

    geroros 2:24 pm on February 15, 2019 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Economic crisis, Iran, ,   

    Analysis of Turkmenistan 

    Turkmenistan is dependent on natural gas exports 

    • Turkmenistan has, depending on the ranking, the world’s 4th to 6th largest natural gas reserves. Accordingly, the gas industry and particularly gas exports are the largest economic driver for Turkmenistan.
    • Just how much Turkmenistan is dependent on gas exports, at least in proportion to total exports, is nicely illustrated by the following chart. (data)
    • Turkmenistan’s exports-to-GDP ratio is at 22,5% in 2017 (data), putting it below the world average of 37%. Two insights follow from this fact. First, Turkmenistan is relatively weakly integrated into the world economy, which does not come as a surprise given its isolistic international stance. Second, and more important, gas exports contribute over 1/5 to Turkmen GDP since gas exports are virtually the only export Turkmenistan has. (Other sources have it at 1/3)
    • Hence, natural gas pipelines to export gas are of major economic and political importance for the country.
    • The players in Turkmenistan’s state-controlled energy sector are Turkmenneft (oil), Turkmengaz (gas), TUrkmengeologiya (exploration), and Turkmenneftgazstroi (construction related to oil and gas production and transport) (Schulz, H. (2017). Die Erdgasexporte Turkmenistans: Energie-und geopolitische Interessen in der Kaspischen Region. Springer-Verlag., p. 161)
    • The following map provides a closer look at the Turkmen gas infrastructure.
    Source:
    Pirani, S. (2012). Central Asian and Caspian gas production and the constraints on export. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
    (More …)
     
  • Unknown's avatar

    maxsteudel 9:24 am on February 14, 2019 Permalink | Reply  

    Chinese Activity in Central Asia Report 

    • According to this report of the Nazarbayev University, there is no (reliable) data available about the external debt of Turkmenistan towards China.
    • The gas exports from Turkmenistan to China are independent of the BRI (p.11).
    • Independently of the diversification attempts, there is a new pipeline from Turkmenistan to China under construction. It will be the 4th one and called “Line D”
    • 2009 China secured the exploitation rights for the southern Turkmen gas fields of “South Yolotan” (one of the largest in the world. (In exchange for 4 billion $)
    • The gas exports to China do not bring “hard currency” in exchange for the deliveries, but are more a repayment of the Chinese investment sum in the pipelines.

    https://centralasiaprogram.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/OBOR_Book_.pdf

     

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